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10. Andy Reid on maintaining some normality for the players before a big game:“You don’t change. It’s not what you do. You just come in and you shoot these guys straight. I think that’s what we all want. If I have education I can share with them , I share with them and then get yourself ready to play. All of this doesn’t necessarily matter on the game. You eliminate those distractions, you get yourself ready to play against a good football team and really it comes down to that when you are out there on the field. All the hype and celebrations, press conferences and all those things, once it is kick off time you want to make sure that you have prepared yourself right.” 9. Dustin Colquitt on getting to this point in his career and the season:“The Patriots have been the team to beat since 2001. They’ve had a great run, especially in the last eight years. Like I said, we will have our work cut out for us. But we’ve been working hard, a lot has changed in this building since 2013, with Coach (Andy) Reid coming, (special team coordinator) Coach (Dave) Toub, guys that have become great friends but also guys who have mentored you up and told you where you struggle, where you need to get better, and included family in that, which has been a great change to this environment. It’s more of a Midwest environment here now. It’s fun to see. It’s fun to see the success we’ve had and getting into this next game. Can you think of a better town in this country that would love and crave an AFC Championship more than Chiefs Kingdom? I can’t.” 8. Andy Reid on Tom Brady’s consistency throughout his career: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports“I haven’t seen any decline. I haven’t seen him get any slower. That’s not his deal, he’s not going to run a lot unless he has to. He is as accurate, he sees things better even than when he did when he was younger. I’m wearing glasses, he doesn’t (laughter). The aging hasn’t hit him. He’s an amazing guy.” 7. Andy Reid on Mahomes’ impressive leadership abilities:“Great quarterbacks, they have that ability. He’s young, but he has that ability to influence and make people around him better. He does it with his teammates. He brings a certain energy with him. He’s not trying to do (that), this isn’t something these guys try to do. This is him. You fake it and guys see right through that. That is who he is and what he is. It is the same guy you guys have a chance to meet with. For some of you guys, he’s made a better writer out of you (laughter). I’m not pointing any fingers (laughter).”6. Steve Nelson, when asked about the Patriots wide receivers:Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports“They’re physical. They’re not super fast guys Youth Xavier Williams Jersey , not super athletic, but they don’t make a lot of mistakes. If you give them any type of room, they could hurt you and, of course, they have Tom Brady, so it’s going to help a ton.”5. Damien Williams on his ability to catch the ball well:“Oh no, I definitely for sure had to work on that. If you call a couple of my coaches they’re kind of mad, they’re like, ‘where’d you learn how to catch all of a sudden?’ It’s for sure something you have to work on. That’s just hit the JUGS every day after practice.”4. Justin Houston on whether or not he laughs at Tom Brady saying critics think the Patriots “suck” now:“Yes, because I just think he’s just trying to get himself and everybody else over there fired up. Everybody knows the Patriots, this is I think their eighth year making it to the AFC Championship, so I think it’s something for himself and the Patriots.”3. Eric Fischer on whether or not the offensive line’s mobility and athleticism is underrated:Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports“I think in the grand scheme of things, people can see what they want to see. Obviously, I think they all want to see the Cheetah (Hill) running 40 yards downfield rather than me (laughter). If I can make him look good, that is offensive line – I don’t need recognition. We are just looking to get the points up on the board. Anytime that we are breaking off a run for 40 yards, that is what we take pride in and we will let the other guys enjoy it. Sometimes, they let us in on the celebrations and stuff so that is pretty cool (laughter).” 2. Bob Sutton on Eric Berry:“I think he’s our most physical football player. So, when you have those qualities you have playmaking ability, you have a chance to affect the game. The one thing about speed on defense is that it isn’t always the plays you make it’s sometimes the plays you prevent. He has that ability in him. The other part of it that he brings is the players respond to him. They appreciate all he’s been through and what he’s done here and what kind of player he is. I obviously think it’s a great plus for us if we can have him.”1. Patrick Mahomes on bringing the Lamar Hunt trophy home:Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports“I think one of the awesome things we do with our player development team is that they take us through the whole history. We come over to the museum that we have in the stadium and they take us through how he made the AFL, pretty much from scratch, and had this vision for what is now the AFC and combined it with the NFL and made this beautiful league. It truly is special to have someone like that who has created your franchise. You want to do whatever you can to bring honor to him and that family as they’ve helped make this a place we can play and have fun and play the sport we love to play.” Holding the number one seed in the 2018 playoffs Youth Patrick Mahomes Jersey , the Kansas City Chiefs don’t yet know which opponent they will face when they play their first game at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 12 at 3:35 p.m. Arrowhead Time.We know that it will be either the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers or Indianapolis Colts.But which one will it be?There’s no way to know for sure, but as it turns out, one of these opponents is more likely than the others.This has to do not only with which teams are more likely to win their games this weekend, but also with how the NFL playoffs are constructed.At each step of the playoffs, the highest-seeded remaining team always plays at home against the lowest-seeded remaining team.In the AFC wild card games this weekend — where the two top-seeded teams sit out — that means the Houston Texans (third) play at home against the Colts (sixth), and the Ravens (fourth) play at home against the Chargers (fifth).We know the Chiefs will not play the Texans in the divisional round. If the Texans are one of the teams that remain after this weekend, they will have the highest seed (third) of the remaining teams, and would therefore face the New England Patriots (second) instead of the Chiefs (first).By the same logic, if the Colts win against the Texans, they would have the lowest seed of the remaining teams (sixth) and would automatically face the Chiefs (first).What this means is that the sixth seed is almost always more likely to play the first seed in the divisional round, and the third seed is almost always more likely to play the second seed. This is because it depends on the outcome of one game instead of two.This will become more clear as we get down to cases.Elo ratings published by say that by their calculations, the Colts have a 44 percent probability to defeat the Texans — which means that there is a 56 percent chance that the winner of the Chargers-Ravens game will be traveling to Arrowhead the following week.The Elo ratings say that the Ravens have a 60 percent chance to win that game, so the Chargers have a 40 percent chance to win.Then all it takes is some simple math to determine to probability that each of these teams will play at Arrowhead the following week:Colts: 44%Ravens: 60% X 56% = 34%Chargers: 40% X 56% = 22%It seems counter-intuitive that the weakest team has the best chance to face the strongest team in the next round, but as we see here, this is precisely why it is so important to obtain the number one seed in the playoffs.Back in the 1990s, Chiefs fans were conditioned to believe that the main advantage of the top seed was to play at home throughout the playoffs — and obviously that’s helpful. But as we see here, even if playoff games were conducted on a neutral field, there is a substantial advantage to having the highest seed in the postseason.If you have the first seed, the most likely outcome is playing the sixth seed in the playoffs.But if you have the second seed Womens Kendall Fuller Jersey , the most likely outcome is playing the third seed.This also means that the probability of both outcomes occurring — that is, the first seed plays the sixth seed, and the second seed plays the third seed — is zero.That’s because both of them are dependent on which team wins a single game: the wild card game between the third seed and the sixth seed.But until that game is decided — which is where we are right now — the probabilities hold.As you know, Elo ratings aren’t the only way to assess the probable outcome of NFL games.I did the same math using three other systems — Sagarin ratings, SRS ratings and Bovada betting odds — here’s how the probabilities line up for the Chiefs:Here’s the same data for the Patriots’ AFC divisional round game in Foxboro:For the New Orleans Saints in the NFC — holding the first seed — here’s the math:Here’s how it works out for the Los Angeles Rams (second) for their NFC divisional round game:As you can see, there’s not a whole lot of difference in how these different systems assess the probabilities for each matchup.But we consistently see that the most likely opponent for the first and second seeded teams are the third and sixth-seeded teams.This will tend to be true in most seasons because point spreads among playoff teams will tend to be low.If we wanted to, we could calculate this all the way through the postseason.But as each round is played, the results of each game affect the probabilities of a win in each successive game.This makes the math more difficult.Thankfully, we don’t have to do that.FiveThirtyEight runs 100,000 simulated seasons every time that new results of NFL games are available, so they can calculate not only the wide variety of wins, losses and ties that might occur, but also the variety of scores by which those games are decided.For most of the season, these simulations have shown the Chiefs to have a double-digit chance to win the Super Bowl.Currently, FiveThirtyEight calculates the Chiefs have a 63 percent probability to make the conference championship, a 39 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl, and a 20 percent probability to win it.Only the Saints — with a 21 percent chance — have a (slightly) better shot.